关键词: 配电网, 贝叶斯网络, 负荷预测, 净负荷

Abstract:

Increasing penetration of distributed renewable energy poses challenges to the safe and stable operation of the distribution network,which makes load forecasting problem considering renewable energy access scenario become the research focus.This paper analyzed the coupling and interaction between the user side load and the power generated by renewable energy and proposed a direct forecasting method of net load of distribution network based on Bayesian network.Firstly,the Bayesian network structure is established according to the causal relationship between each influencing factor and net load of distribution network,then the network parameters are learned with historical data,and finally the Bayesian network for net load prediction of distribution network is generated.The model is tested with the actual data of distribution network in a foreign country.Compared with the prediction models such as support vector machine (SVM),the prediction error of the model proposed in this paper is small,which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of net load of distribution network.

Key words: distribution network, Bayesian network, load forecasting, net load