新能源-电制氢容量双层规划

doi:10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2021.07.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以风电制氢为例,首先建立随机波动输入下,电制氢系统全寿命经济分析模型;基于此,提出3种风电-电制氢容量双层规划模型,分别以电制氢系统全寿命周期总成本、投资成本与内部收益率作为上层优化模型的目标函数,下层的优化目标为风电场的弃电率,以弃电率约束与制氢系统的运行为约束,并采用MATLAB遗传算法工具箱求解模型。最后,以甘肃某实际风电厂站为例,验证所提双层规划模型的有效性与风电制氢经济可行性。

关键词: 碳中和, 新能源, 电制氢, 弃电率, 双层规划

Abstract:

Take wind power hydrogen production as an example.First,this paper establishes a life-span economic analysis model of the electric hydrogen production system under random fluctuation input.Based on this,three wind power-electric hydrogen production capacity double-level planning models are proposed.The upper models are based on the electric hydrogen production system.The life cycle total cost,investment cost and internal rate of return are used as the objective function of the upper optimization model.The lower optimization target is the curtailment rate of the wind farm,and the constraints are the curtailment rate constraints and the operating constraints of the hydrogen production system,and MATLAB genetics is used.The algorithm toolbox solves the model.Finally,a certain region in Gansu is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed bi-level programming model and the economic feasibility of wind power hydrogen production.

Key words: carbon neutral, new energy, power to hydrogen, abandoned power rate, two-level planning

中图分类号:

TM734

宋新甫, 荆世博, 张红, 袁铁江. 新能源-电制氢容量双层规划[J]. 电器与能效管理技术, 2021, 0(7): 8-13.

SONG Xinfu, JING Shibo, ZHANG Hong, YUAN Tiejiang. New Energy-Power to Hydrogen Capacity Two-Level Planning[J]. LOW VOLTAGE APPARATUS, 2021, 0(7): 8-13.

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参数	上限	备注
电制氢系统投资成本 /(元· kW^-1)	8 000
氢气售价/(元·kg^-1)	20
制氢电价/(元·kWh^-1)	0.25
制氢水价格/(元·T^-1)	5
初始PEM制氢效率 /(kWh·Nm^-3)	4.5	随着时间衰减
电堆的寿命/h	80 000	占投资成本60%
制氢其他子系统寿命/a	20	占投资成本40%
制氢系统效率衰减/%	10	假设平均衰减0.5%/a
政府补贴/(元·kWh^-1)	0.25

方案	优化目标	约束
1	投资成本最小	考虑弃电约束
2	总成本最小	考虑弃电约束
3	内部收益率	考虑弃电约束
4	双层规划-上层优化投资成本	考虑弃电约束
5	双层规划-上层优化总成本	考虑弃电约束
6	双层规划-上层优化内部收益率	考虑弃电约束

方案	投资成本/ 亿元	弃电率/%	电解槽规划值/MW	IRR/%
1	4.94	8.3	61.76	11.1
2	6.13	0	76.69	9.7
3	5.54	1.4	69.34	10.8
4	4.70	7.3	58.83	11.9
5	6.13	0	76.69	9.7
6	4.84	4.8	60.46	12.0

方案	制氢系统年等效利用时间/h	槽寿命/a	运行成本 /亿元	收入/亿元
1	2 160	>20	1.45	16.7
2	1 899	>20	1.58	18.3
3	2 070	>20	1.55	18.1
4	2 293	>20	1.46	16.9
5	1 899	>20	1.57	18.3
6	2 291	>20	1.49	17.4

讨论场景	讨论区间
1	政府补贴为0~0.25元/kWh
2	槽全寿命效率衰减10%~20%
3	电解槽自身寿命40 000~80 000 h