关键词: 光伏, 断路器, 可靠性, 寿命, 灰色模型, 威布尔分布

Abstract:

To give the reliability distribution of low-voltage DC circuit breaker with photovoltaic distribution network,a metabolic grey model for the life prediction of circuit breaker is constructed,and the accurate prediction of the life of photovoltaic low-voltage DC circuit breaker under small sample data is realized.The average relative error of the prediction results is less than 2%.Then,based on the grey prediction results,the two parameter Weibull fitting results of PV low-voltage DC circuit breaker reliability are given by using the maximum likelihood estimation method,and compared with the Weibull distribution of the measured life data.The results show that the errors of the size parameters and shape parameters of the Weibull distribution are 0.7% and 2.17%,which can demonstrate the effectiveness of the grey algorithm and Weibull distribution in the reliability analysis of PV low-voltage DC circuit breaker.

Key words: photovoltaic, circuit breaker, reliability, lifetime, grey model, Weibull distribution