关键词: 园区微电网, 概率收益分析算法, 随机场景生成, 蒙特卡洛算法, 收益概率分布曲线

Abstract:

In view of the large initial investment of park micro-grid and the uncertainty of distributed power generation,in order to fully explore and quantitatively evaluate the economic benefits of micro-grid operation,a micro-grid economic operation evaluation method based on probabilistic income analysis algorithm is proposed.In this algorithm,the uncertainty of micro-grid investment income is quantified from the perspective of income probability distribution,the resource uncertainty and prediction uncertainty are fully considered,the uncertainty models of load and photovoltaic output are established,and a large number of random scenarios are generated.By using Monte Carlo method to analyze the micro-grid monthly income,the corresponding income probability distribution curve is generated to realize the quantification of micro-grid uncertain income.The calculation results show that the method can compare the benefits of different micro-grid configuration parameters, and provide a scientific basis for the investment decision of park micro-grid.

Key words: park micro-grid, probabilistic income analysis algorithm, random scene generation, Monte Carlo algorithm, probability distribution curve of income