考虑风光预测误差的电力系统风险规避评估模型*

doi:10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2020.03.018

电器与能效管理技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 588 ›› Issue (3): 104-109.doi: 10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2020.03.018

• 能效管理 • 上一篇

考虑风光预测误差的电力系统风险规避评估模型^*

刘俊超¹, 方绍凤², 张群³, 廖圣桃¹, 牛犇¹

1.长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院, 湖南长沙 410004;
2.中国能源建设集团湖南省电力设计院有限公司, 湖南长沙 410007;
3.中国通号(长沙)轨道交通控制技术有限公司, 湖南长沙 410000

收稿日期:2019-12-23 出版日期:2020-03-30 发布日期:2020-04-21
作者简介:刘俊超(1992—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为电力系统运行与规划、新能源并网分析与运行、风险及条件风险等。方绍凤(1992—),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为电网规划与运行、新能源接入系统、低碳电力、需求侧管理等。张群(1995—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为新能源发电变流器控制、UPS并联逆变器控制等。
基金资助:
* 国家自然科学基金资助(91547113)

Power System Risk Avoidance Assessment Model Considering Wind and Solar Forecasting Error

LIU Junchao¹, FANG Shaofeng², ZHANG Qun³, LIAO Shengtao¹, NIU Ben¹

1.School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410004, China;
2.Hunan Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,China Energy Engineering Group, Changsha 410007, China;
3.China Railway Signal & Communication (Changsha) Metro-Transportation Control Technology Co.,Ltd., Changsha 410000, China

Received:2019-12-23 Online:2020-03-30 Published:2020-04-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为更准确地评估电力系统在较短时间内的风光消纳情况,需考虑风光联合功率的预测误差。提出了一种考虑风光联合出力的概率优化模型,并引入CVaR来量度风光的不确定性给发电调度带来的弃风弃光和失负荷风险损失。在概率优化模型中,每个风光联合出力值对应一个分布概率,并用其度量电力系统中的运行风险。以系统运行效益最大、风险规避程度最大为目标,从效益和风险两个方面评估风光预测误差对系统运行的影响,得到最优权衡风险和效益的调度方案。与传统区间优化模型进行对比,算例结果验证了所建模型的合理性和有效性。

关键词: CVaR, 风光预测误差, 概率优化模型, 风险规避

Abstract: In order to evaluate the wind and solar power accomodation in power system in a short time accurately,it is necessary to consider the prediction error of wind-solar joint power.Therefore,a probabilistic optimization model considering the wind-solar joint output was proposed,and CVaR was introduced to measure the risk loss of wind/solar curtailment and loss of load caused by uncertainty of wind and solar power.In the model,each wind-solar joint output value corresponds to a distribution probability,which is used to measure the operational risk in the power system.Aiming at maximizing the operational benefit and risk aversion of the system,this paper evaluated the impact of wind/solar forecast errors on the system operation from benefit side and risk side,to obtain the optimal dispatching scheme weighing risks and benefits.Compared with the traditional interval optimization model,the results of the example verify the rationality and effectiveness of the model.

Key words: CVaR, wind and solar prediction error, probability optimization model, risk aversion

中图分类号:

TM715

刘俊超, 方绍凤, 张群, 廖圣桃, 牛犇. 考虑风光预测误差的电力系统风险规避评估模型^*[J]. 电器与能效管理技术, 2020, 588(3): 104-109.

LIU Junchao, FANG Shaofeng, ZHANG Qun, LIAO Shengtao, NIU Ben. Power System Risk Avoidance Assessment Model Considering Wind and Solar Forecasting Error[J]. DIANQI YU NENGXIAO GUANLI JISHU, 2020, 588(3): 104-109.

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考虑风光预测误差的电力系统风险规避评估模型^*

Power System Risk Avoidance Assessment Model Considering Wind and Solar Forecasting Error

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