Research on Reliability Investment of Distribution Network Based on Combination Weighted Grey Correlation Analysis

doi:10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2022.04.006

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the problem that the traditional grey correlation analysis method adopts the equal weight treatment method for each influencing factor when solving the grey correlation degree,and does not consider the different influence degree of historical data on the existing situation with the growth of years,a combined weighted grey correlation analysis method is proposed.Based on the reliability historical data of a region,the key factors affecting the power supply reliability are determined,and the correlation equation between the reliability index and the key factors is established.The improvement value of reliability index is decomposed into the improvement objectives of key influencing factors,and the total investment to achieve the reliability objectives is obtained according to the investment calculation model of typical engineering scenarios.The example shows that the method proposed has certain advantages over the traditional method,which can reduce blind investment,improve the use efficiency of Engineering funds and achieve accurate investment.

Key words: combination weighting grey correlation, reliability, correlation equation, investment calculation

CLC Number:

TM732

WANG Xiaodong, FEI Ke, SHA Yuchen, HOU Siwei. Research on Reliability Investment of Distribution Network Based on Combination Weighted Grey Correlation Analysis[J]. LOW VOLTAGE APPARATUS, 2022, 0(4): 35-40.

Figures/Tables 6

References 13

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用户平均停电时间/(时·户^-1)	可转供电率/%	电缆化率/ %	绝缘化率/ %	线路平均负载率/%	配变平均负载率/%	架空线平均分段数/段	配电自动化覆盖率/%
2.35	89.57	76.98	99.21	36.01	35.63	2.23	9.62
1.96	92.31	79.51	99.75	33.57	38.43	2.38	16.51
1.77	93.34	82.43	100	35.46	38.31	2.71	28.61
1.63	94.01	84.74	100	34.35	39.52	2.83	51.23
1.51	94.11	85.56	100	35.78	39.34	2.90	68.81

指标	可转供电率	电缆化率	绝缘化率	线路平均负载率	配变平均负载率	架空线平均分段数	配电自动化覆盖率
改进灰色关联	0.123 5	0.113 1	0.100 6	0.088 2	0.072 5	0.137 1	0.118 9
灰色关联	0.765 2	0.759 6	0.757 6	0.742 2	0.734 6	0.766 3	0.761 1

指标	可转供电率/%	电缆化率/%	架空线平均分段数/段	配电自动化覆盖率/%
当前值	94.11	85.56	2.9	68.81
目标值	100	89.6	4.9	100

分析方法	投资/亿元							合计/ 亿元
分析方法	可转供电率	电缆化率		架空线平均分段数		配电自动化覆盖率		合计/ 亿元
本文方法	0.014 2		0.285 0		0.035 1		0.253 5	0.587 8
传统回归分析方法	0.031 1		0.402 0		0.056 5		0.364 2	0.853 8

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