Abstract:

Gansu is an important ecological barrier region in China, and accelerating the low-carbon transition of the energy system is an inevitable choice to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality as scheduled. Based on the system dynamics theory and the actual development of Gansu Province, a causal chain and a low carbon transition path simulation model containing three subsystems:energy demand, carbon emission and carbon trading is constructed. Based on the results of variable sensitivity analysis, four single-parameter regulation schemes of GDP growth rate, energy structure, production structure and carbon trading policy as well as a comprehensive regulation scheme are formulated. The carbon reduction effects of the above regulation schemes are clarified through the dynamic simulation. On this basis, the main path of low-carbon transition in Gansu province is proposed, providing the support for the realization of the “dual carbon”goal.

Key words: low-carbon transition, system dynamics, carbon trading, scenario simulation