Abstract:

On the basis of grey system theory,the GM(1,1) prediction model is improved and promoted to form the grey residual model.The grey residual prediction model is improved by Markov prediction idea,and the improved model is applied to the short-term wind speed prediction of wind farms.Through modeling and simulation,the model is applied to literature [1],and the prediction results prove the effectiveness of the proposed method.The improved prediction model has higher accuracy and better prediction effect than the traditional grey model,which provides asimple and accurate new method for wind speed prediction.

Key words: grey residual prediction model, Markov process, wind speed prediction, error analysis