Abstract: In order to evaluate the wind and solar power accomodation in power system in a short time accurately,it is necessary to consider the prediction error of wind-solar joint power.Therefore,a probabilistic optimization model considering the wind-solar joint output was proposed,and CVaR was introduced to measure the risk loss of wind/solar curtailment and loss of load caused by uncertainty of wind and solar power.In the model,each wind-solar joint output value corresponds to a distribution probability,which is used to measure the operational risk in the power system.Aiming at maximizing the operational benefit and risk aversion of the system,this paper evaluated the impact of wind/solar forecast errors on the system operation from benefit side and risk side,to obtain the optimal dispatching scheme weighing risks and benefits.Compared with the traditional interval optimization model,the results of the example verify the rationality and effectiveness of the model.

Key words: CVaR, wind and solar prediction error, probability optimization model, risk aversion