Abstract:

With the introduction of carbon neutrality and carbon peak goals,the large-scale development of wind energy and solar energy,and technological progress,new energy will gradually replace fossil energy power generation as the dominant energy source.With further development,the problem of new energy consumption still exists.Analysis of the factors affecting the new energy consumption and the contribution and sensitivity of the main factors is of great significance.This paper proposes a new energy consumption influencing factor contribution evaluation model,analyzes the main factors from the contribution metrics; calculates the new energy utilization rate under each boundary condition based on time series production simulation,and establishes a new energy influencing factor sensitive factor calculation model.Taking Xinjiang Power Grid’s new energy consumption as a case,the evaluation method proposed in this paper is used to evaluate the sensitivity of various influencing factors.The analysis shows that various factors such as load growth,increase in delivery capacity,resource characteristics,installed capacity,and access timing all have varying degrees of impact on the consumption of new energy.

Key words: new energy accommodation, sensitive factor, contribution degree, chronological production simulation